| Description |
1 online resource (54 pages). |
|
text file |
| Series |
IMF Working Papers
|
|
IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; no. 18/153.
|
| Contents |
Cover; Contents; 1 Introduction; 2 Data and Descriptive Analysis; 2.1 Sample; 2.2 Variable Construction and Sources; 2.3 Variable Transformation; 2.4 Event Analysis; 3 Empirical Model and Implementation; 4 Results and Discussion; 4.1 Main results; 4.2 Goodness of Fit; 4.3 Robustness of the Baseline; 4.4 The Role of Leverage; 4.5 Capital Inflows Bonanza; 4.6 Cross-Sectional Heterogeneity; 5 Concluding Remarks; A: Data Sources and Sample Makeup; B: Additional Figures; C: Additional Regression Results. |
| Summary |
We develop an empirical model to predict banking crises in a sample of 60 low-income countries (LICs) over the 1981-2015 period. Given the recent emergence of financial sector stress associated with low commodity prices in several LICs, we assign price movements in primary commodities a key role in our model. Accounting for changes in commodity prices significantly increases the predictive power of the model. The commodity price effect is economically substantial and robust to the inclusion of a wide array of potential drivers of banking crises. We confirm that net capital inflows increase the likelihood of a crisis; however, in contrast to recent findings for advanced and emerging economies, credit growth and capital flow surges play no significant role in predicting banking crises in LICs. |
| Local Note |
eBooks on EBSCOhost EBSCO eBook Subscription Academic Collection - North America |
| Subject |
Financial crises.
|
|
Financial crises. |
|
Banks. |
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Financial Crises. |
|
Global Commodity Crises. |
|
International Lending And Debt Problems. |
| Genre/Form |
Electronic books.
|
| Added Author |
Presbitero, Andrea.
|
| Other Form: |
Print version: Eberhardt, Markus. Commodity Price Movements and Banking Crises. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, ©2018 9781484366776 |
| ISBN |
1484367855 |
|
1484366778 |
|
9781484366776 |
|
9781484367858 (electronic book) |
| Standard No. |
10.5089/9781484366776.001 |
|
