| Description |
1 online resource (20 pages) : charts. |
|
text file |
| Series |
IMF working paper ; WP/12/196
|
|
IMF working paper ; WP/12/196.
|
| Note |
Title from PDF title page (IMF Web site, viewed Aug. 2, 2012). |
| Summary |
"The main purpose of this paper is to construct a financial conditions index (FCI) for South Africa. The analysis extracts the index by applying two alternative approaches (principal component analysis and Kalman filter), which identify an unobservable common factor from a group of external and domestic financial indicators. The alternative estimated FCIs, which share a similar trajectory over time, seem to have a powerful predictive information for the near-term GDP growth (up to four quarters), and they outperform the South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) leading indicator as well as individual financial variables. Their recent dynamics suggest that following a strong recovery in late-2009 and 2010, reflecting in part domestic factors such as systematic reductions in the policy rate, the rebound in real economic activity, and a benign inflationary environment, the financial conditions have deteriorated in recent months, though not as sharply as in end-2008. Given their relatively high predictive power regarding GDP growth, a further deterioration may imply that economic activity is likely to slow in the period ahead"--Page [1]. |
| Bibliography |
Includes bibliographical references (page 16). |
| Note |
"African Department." |
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"August 2012." |
| Local Note |
eBooks on EBSCOhost EBSCO eBook Subscription Academic Collection - North America |
| Subject |
Finance -- South Africa.
|
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Finance. |
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South Africa. |
| Genre/Form |
Electronic books.
|
| Added Author |
Klein, Nir.
|
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Ndou, Eliphas.
|
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International Monetary Fund. African Department.
|
| ISBN |
9781475555639 electronic book |
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1475555636 electronic book |
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9781475505450 |
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9781475530711 |
|
