| Description |
1 online resource (38 pages). |
|
text file |
| Series |
IMF Working Papers,
1018-5941
|
|
IMF Working Papers.
|
| Contents |
Cover; Contents; Abstract; I. Introduction; II. Methodology; A. HP Filter; B. Multivariate Filtering Approach; C. Multivariate Filter with Financial Frictions; D. Production Function Approach; E. How can different approaches be reconciled?; III. Results; A. Potential Growth and its Drivers; B. How Large Were Output Gaps in 2015?; IV. Conclusions; References; FIGURES; 1. CESEE EU: Comovement of Cyclical Variables; 2: Information used in Different Methods of Estimating Potential Output; 3. CESEE: Potential Growth Estimates; 4. CESEE: Common and Idiosyncratic Factors of Potential Growth. |
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5. CESEE: Output Gap Estimates Using Different Methodologies6. CESEE: Potential Growth Estimates Using Different Methodologies; 7. Output Gaps in 2015; 8. Inflation rates; TABLES; 1. Correlations between intensity measures of capital and labor utilization; 2. CESEE: Output Gap Estimates, 2015 (percent of potential output); 3. CESEE: Potential Growth Estimates, 2015 (y-o-y, percent); APPENDICES; A.A comparison of output gap estimates using different indicators to identify; B. CESEE Countries' Potential Growth and Output Gaps. |
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C. CESEE Countries' Potential Growth Decomposition (using production function approach)D. Decomposing Potential Growth into Common and Idiosyncratic; E. Data Sources and Variables Used for each Methodology. |
| Summary |
Was the postcrisis growth slowdown in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe (CESEE) structural or cyclical? We use three different methods-production function approach, basic multivariate filter, and multivariate filter with financial frictions-to evaluate potential growth and output gaps for 18 CESEE countries during 2000-15. Our findings suggest that potential growth weakened significantly after the crisis across most countries in the region. This decline appears to be largely due to stagnant productivity and weaker capital accumulation, which were associated with common external factors, including trading partners' slow potential growth, but also decline in global trade and stalled expansion of global value chains. Our estimates suggest that output gaps in 2015 were largely closed in many countries in the region. |
| Local Note |
eBooks on EBSCOhost EBSCO eBook Subscription Academic Collection - North America |
| Subject |
Europe, Central -- Economic conditions -- 1989-
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|
Central Europe. |
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Economic conditions. |
| Chronological Term |
1989- |
| Subject |
Europe, Eastern -- Economic conditions -- 1989-
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Eastern Europe. |
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Balkan Peninsula -- Economic conditions.
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Balkan Peninsula. |
| Genre/Form |
Electronic books.
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| Added Author |
Raei, Faezeh.
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Stepanyan, Ara.
|
| Other Form: |
Print version: Podpiera, Jiri. A Fresh Look at Potential Output in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European Countries. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, ©2017 9781475578980 |
| ISBN |
9781475584592 (electronic book) |
|
1475584598 (electronic book) |
|
1475584598 |
|
1475578989 |
|
9781475578980 |
| ISSN |
1018-5941 |
| Standard No. |
10.5089/9781475578980.001 |
|
