Description 
1 online resource (xviii, 347 pages) : illustrations 

text file 
Bibliography 
Includes bibliographical references and index. 
Summary 
"There is a logical flaw in the statistical methods used across experimental science. This fault is not just a minor academic quibble: it underlies a reproducibility crisis now threatening entire disciplines. In an increasingly datareliant culture, this same deeply rooted error shapes decisions in medicine, law, and public policy with profound consequences. The foundation of the problem is a misunderstanding of probability and our ability to make inferences from data. Aubrey Clayton traces the history of how statistics went astray, beginning with the groundbreaking work of the seventeenthcentury mathematician Jacob Bernoulli and winding through gambling, astronomy, and genetics. He recounts the feuds among rival schools of statistics, exploring the surprisingly human problems that gave rise to the discipline and the alltoohuman shortcomings that derailed it. Clayton highlights how influential nineteenth and twentiethcentury figures developed a statistical methodology they claimed was purely objective in order to silence critics of their political agendas, including eugenics. Clayton provides a clear account of the mathematics and logic of probability, conveying complex concepts accessibly for readers interested in the statistical methods that frame our understanding of the world. He contends that we need to take a Bayesian approachincorporating prior knowledge when reasoning with incomplete informationin order to resolve the crisis. Ranging across math, philosophy, and culture, Bernoulli's Fallacy explains why something has gone wrong with how we use dataand how to fix it" Provided by publisher. 
Contents 
Introduction  1. What is probability?  2. The titular fallacy  3. Adolphe quetelet's bell curve bridge  4. The frequentist jihad  5. The quoteunquote logic of orthodox statistics  6. The replication crisis/opportunity  7. The way out. 
Local Note 
eBooks on EBSCOhost EBSCO eBook Subscription Academic Collection  North America 
Subject 
Bernoulli, Jakob, 16541705  Influence.


Bernoulli, Jakob, 16541705. 

Probabilities  Philosophy  19th century.


Probabilities  Philosophy. 
Chronological Term 
19th century 
Subject 
Probabilities. 

Probabilities  Philosophy  20th century.

Chronological Term 
20th century 
Subject 
Mathematical statistics  Philosophy.


Mathematical statistics  Philosophy. 

Mathematical statistics. 

Binomial distribution.


Binomial distribution. 

Law of large numbers.


Law of large numbers. 

MATHEMATICS / History & Philosophy. 

Influence (Literary, artistic, etc.) 
Chronological Term 
18001999 
Genre/Form 
Electronic books.

Other Form: 
Print version: Clayton, Aubrey. Bernoulli's fallacy New York : Columbia University Press, 2021. 9780231199940 (DLC) 2021004250 
ISBN 
9780231553353 electronic book 

0231553358 electronic book 

9780231199940 hardcover 
