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Author Clayton, Aubrey, author.

Title Bernoulli's fallacy : statistical illogic and the crisis of modern science / Aubrey Clayton.

Publication Info. New York : Columbia University Press, [2021]

Item Status

Description 1 online resource (xviii, 347 pages) : illustrations
text file
Bibliography Includes bibliographical references and index.
Summary "There is a logical flaw in the statistical methods used across experimental science. This fault is not just a minor academic quibble: it underlies a reproducibility crisis now threatening entire disciplines. In an increasingly data-reliant culture, this same deeply rooted error shapes decisions in medicine, law, and public policy with profound consequences. The foundation of the problem is a misunderstanding of probability and our ability to make inferences from data. Aubrey Clayton traces the history of how statistics went astray, beginning with the groundbreaking work of the seventeenth-century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli and winding through gambling, astronomy, and genetics. He recounts the feuds among rival schools of statistics, exploring the surprisingly human problems that gave rise to the discipline and the all-too-human shortcomings that derailed it. Clayton highlights how influential nineteenth- and twentieth-century figures developed a statistical methodology they claimed was purely objective in order to silence critics of their political agendas, including eugenics. Clayton provides a clear account of the mathematics and logic of probability, conveying complex concepts accessibly for readers interested in the statistical methods that frame our understanding of the world. He contends that we need to take a Bayesian approach-incorporating prior knowledge when reasoning with incomplete information-in order to resolve the crisis. Ranging across math, philosophy, and culture, Bernoulli's Fallacy explains why something has gone wrong with how we use data-and how to fix it"-- Provided by publisher.
Contents Introduction -- 1. What is probability? -- 2. The titular fallacy -- 3. Adolphe quetelet's bell curve bridge -- 4. The frequentist jihad -- 5. The quote-unquote logic of orthodox statistics -- 6. The replication crisis/opportunity -- 7. The way out.
Local Note eBooks on EBSCOhost EBSCO eBook Subscription Academic Collection - North America
Subject Bernoulli, Jakob, 1654-1705 -- Influence.
Bernoulli, Jakob, 1654-1705.
Probabilities -- Philosophy -- 19th century.
Probabilities -- Philosophy.
Chronological Term 19th century
Subject Probabilities.
Probabilities -- Philosophy -- 20th century.
Chronological Term 20th century
Subject Mathematical statistics -- Philosophy.
Mathematical statistics -- Philosophy.
Mathematical statistics.
Binomial distribution.
Binomial distribution.
Law of large numbers.
Law of large numbers.
MATHEMATICS / History & Philosophy.
Influence (Literary, artistic, etc.)
Chronological Term 1800-1999
Genre/Form Electronic books.
Other Form: Print version: Clayton, Aubrey. Bernoulli's fallacy New York : Columbia University Press, 2021. 9780231199940 (DLC) 2021004250
ISBN 9780231553353 electronic book
0231553358 electronic book
9780231199940 hardcover