| Description |
1 online resource (32 pages). |
|
text file |
| Series |
IMF Working Papers
|
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IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; no. 18/152.
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| Contents |
Cover; Table of Contents; Abstract; I. Introduction; II. MPMOD; III. Properties of MPMOD; IV. Impulse Response Analysis; V. Concluding Remarks; References; Appendix; A. MPMOD Equations; B. MPMOD Parameters, Shock Distribution, and Data Source; C. RMSE of Consensus Forecasts; Figures; Figure 1. Comparison of MPMOD Estimates with CBO Estimates; Figure 2. Sensitivity Analysis; Figure 3. Real-time Estimates and Rolling Forecasts; Figure 4. Comparison of Multivariate Filter Results with and without the Monetary Policy Block; Figure 5. MPMOD Detailed Results. |
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Figure 6. Impulse Response for a 1-Standard-Deviation Positive Shock to the Output GapFigure 7. Impulse Response for a 1-Standard-Deviation Positive Shock to the Level of Potential Output; Figure 8. Impulse Response for a 1-Standard-Deviation Positive Shock to the Growth Rate of Potential Output; Figure 9. Impulse Response for a 1-Standard-Deviation Negative Shock to the Inflation Target; Appendix Figures; Figure A1. Shocks to the Level and Growth Rate of Potential Output, and to the Output Gap; Appendix Tables; Table B1. Estimation Results for Structural Model Parameters. |
| Note |
Table B2. Estimation Results for Shock DistributionsTable B3. Data Sources. |
| Summary |
Estimates of potential output and the neutral short-term interest rate play important roles in policy making. However, such estimates are associated with significant uncertainty and subject to significant revisions. This paper extends the structural multivariate filter methodology by adding a monetary policy block, which allows estimating the neutral rate of interest for the U.S. economy. The addition of the monetary policy block further improves the reliability of the structural multivariate filter. |
| Local Note |
eBooks on EBSCOhost EBSCO eBook Subscription Academic Collection - North America |
| Subject |
Business Fluctuations. |
|
Model Construction And Estimation. |
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Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, And Effects) |
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Price Level. |
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Business cycles -- United States -- Forecasting.
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Business cycles. |
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United States. |
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Forecasting. |
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Business forecasting -- United States.
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Business forecasting. |
| Genre/Form |
Electronic books.
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| Added Author |
Al-Mashat, Rania A.
|
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Avetisyan, Hayk.
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| Other Form: |
Print version: Alichi, Ali. Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy. Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund, ©2018 9781484366325 |
| ISBN |
1484367804 |
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1484366328 |
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9781484366325 |
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9781484367803 (electronic book) |
| Standard No. |
10.5089/9781484366325.001 |
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